※ [本文转录自 Ecophilia 看板] 作者: weitzern (高级杂工) 看板: Ecophilia 标题: [新闻] 都是乙醇闯的祸？ 2008年粮食价格将持续飙涨 时间: Wed Jan 30 21:45:11 2008 来源: http://e-info.org.tw/node/30185 摘译自2008年1月25日 ENS 美国，华盛顿报导；郑佳宜编译；蔡丽伶审校 我们都在见证历史上最大悲剧：由於美国的错误政策，为了降低石油的倚赖，而将谷物用 以生产燃料，造成前所未有的全球粮食危机。 全世界正面临一波粮食价格通货膨胀，在这个史无前例的危机中，谷物和大豆价格频频创 下新高。去年12月17日，芝加哥期货交易所的小麦价格每英斗（8加仑）涨破10元，史上 首见；1月中旬，每英斗玉米超过5元，也逼近历史新高；1月11日，大豆价格涨到每英斗 13.42元，是最高收盘价。这些价格都较一、两年前涨了一倍。 从1990到2005年，人口和食用谷物的家畜数量均有成长，刺激粮食消费量每年平均成长2 千1百万公吨。乙醇蒸馏工业的大量需求，使消费量在 2006年激增为5千4百万公吨，2007 年则达8千1百万公吨，一年间遽增的2千7百万公吨额度甚至超过世界粮食消费量的两倍。 倘若目前兴建中的62座蒸馏工厂在今年底完成80%，用於生物燃料的谷物消费量将达1亿1 千4百万公吨，占美国今年预计收成量28%。 粮食和能源经济在人类历史中多被分开审视，但随着乙醇蒸馏工业的日益成长，两者逐渐 互相牵引，且密不可分。倘若谷物的食物价值低於燃料价值，市场便会驱使谷物朝燃料市 场发展，导致燃料市场的高价拉抬整体粮食价格。 明尼苏达大学教授Runge和Senauer四年前在计画成果中估计，饥饿和营养不良人口可望在 2025年之前，从8亿减少到6亿2500万。然而 2007年，他们重新考量生物燃料对食物价格 造成的影响，认为这个数字届时将不减反升，饥饿人口恐怕会在2025年攀升到12亿。这个 数据已逐日实现中。 不同於先前几次因气候变迁导致世界粮食价格的攀升，这次纯然出於政策所导致的人祸， 其实可藉调整政策得以舒缓现况。美国谷物燃料计画目前仅足以供应国内3%的燃料需求， 不值得为此付上饥饿和政治动荡的代价；倘若美国谷物收成全数投入生产乙醇，也仅仅只 够负担18%的燃料使用。 ※本文作者布朗(Lester R. Brown)。图片来源：ENS 本文作者布朗(Lester R. Brown)是地球政策研究所的创办人和所长，在其着作「B计画」 书中建构环境永续经济的概念。主要研究领域包括粮食、人口、水资源、气候变迁和再生 能源。屡获奖章和荣誉学位肯定，1974年创办看守世界，曾任执行长26年。 INSIGHTS:Why Ethanol Production Will Drive World Food Prices Even Higher in 2008 Lester R. Brown WASHINGTON, DC, January 25, 2008 (ENS) We are witnessing the beginning of one of the great tragedies of history. The United States, in a misguided effort to reduce its oil insecurity by converting grain into fuel for cars, is generating global food insecurity on a scale never seen before. The world is facing the most severe food price inflation in history as grain and soybean prices climb to all-time highs. Wheat trading on the Chicago Board of Trade on December 17th breached the $10 per bushel level for the first time ever. In mid-January, corn was trading over $5 per bushel, close to its historic high. And on January 11th, soybeans traded at $13.42 per bushel, the highest price ever recorded. All these prices are double those of a year or two ago. From 1990 to 2005, world grain consumption, driven largely by population growth and rising consumption of grain-based animal products, climbed by an average of 21 million tons per year. Then came the explosion in demand for grain used in U.S. ethanol distilleries, which jumped from 54 million tons in 2006 to 81 million tons in 2007. This 27 million ton jump more than doubled the annual growth in world demand for grain. If 80 percent of the 62 distilleries now under construction are completed by late 2008, grain used to produce fuel for cars will climb to 114 million tons, or 28 percent of the projected 2008 U.S. grain harvest. Historically the food and energy economies have been largely separate, but now with the construction of so many fuel ethanol distilleries, they are merging. If the food value of grain is less than its fuel value, the market will move the grain into the energy economy. Thus as the price of oil rises, the price of grain follows it upward. Projections by Professors C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer of the University of Minnesota four years ago showed the number of hungry and malnourished people decreasing from over 800 million to 625 million by 2025. But in early 2007 their update of these projections, taking into account the biofuel effect on world food prices, showed the number of hungry people climbing to 1.2 billion by 2025. That climb is already under way. Whereas previous dramatic rises in world grain prices were weather-induced, this one is policy-induced and can be dealt with by policy adjustments. The crop fuels program that currently satisfies scarcely 3 percent of U.S. gasoline needs is simply not worth the human suffering and political chaos it is causing. If the entire U.S. grain harvest were converted into ethanol, it would satisfy scarcely 18 percent of our automotive fuel needs. {Lester R. Brown is founder and president of Earth Policy Institute. He is the author of numerous books, including "Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble" where he develops a vision for an environmentally sustainable economy. His principal research areas include food, population, water, climate change, and renewable energy. The recipient of scores of awards and honorary degrees, in 1974, he founded Worldwatch Institute, of which he was president for its first 26 years.} 全文及图片详见 ：ENS -- 。 　╔╯═╗　 ╦╦╦ ╬╬╯ ╰╦ ╬ ╬╬╗ ╦╰╬═ 　╠╬═ ══ 　 ╔══╗ ╔╬╬╗ ╬ ╩ ║ ╬＞║＜ ＊ ╬═ ╔╗╔╗＊ ∕╚﹨﹨ ╠═ ╠═ ║ ╔╬╗ ╚╯ ╩ ╝ 　═╩═ ╚╝║╯ 　 ╠═╗ ╚═╗╚══╝ ╠╬║ 　　 ╳ ╬╬║ ═╬ ╬ 国家研究院》Academy》EarthAstro》Ecophilia环境板 ╯　。 ╯ ╩╯ m3m3ρ --

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