文章大意︰预计美国的学院和大学将成片倒闭或彼此合并。理由之一是 年轻人口减少。各高教机构均努力寻求生路，提出各种经营上的创意， 除了大学彼此合并以外，还有和营利的教育机构合并的方案。除此以外 ，开发新的学位计画(Program)，以及推出线上学习计画(On-line Learning) 等等。 Will Half Of All Colleges Really Close In The Next Decade? Michael Horn Michael Horn Contributor Education I write about transforming education through digital learning https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/#4e7f0d3052e5 Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen consistently turns heads in higher education by predicting that 50% of colleges and universities will close or go bankrupt in the next decade. Christensen and I made a more measured prediction with more nuance in the New York Times in 2013: “a host of struggling colleges and universities—the bottom 25 percent of every tier, we predict—will disappear or merge in the next 10 to 15 years.” ... (内文标题) The prediction arose out of an observation that the business model of traditional colleges and universities was broken. ... (内文标题) On top of that, demographics are beginning to work against traditional colleges and universities. (紧邻第一段内文) The pool of 18-year-olds is starting to decline—with precipitous declines in certain regions forecast to begin in 2026. That’s a recipe for disaster for two reasons. ... (内文标题) Against this turbulent backdrop ripe for colleges to fail, Christensen observed that the emergence of the first disruptive innovation in education since the printing press —online learning—could wreak even more havoc as students enroll in online learning experiences. ... (内文标题) So what will happen? (紧邻第一段内文) Richard Vedder, an economist who studies higher education, wrote: To me the issue is not, ‘will colleges be forced to close?’ but rather how many will close and over what time period. Will it be 500? 2000? Will it largely happen in the next five years, or 10 years or more? I am not certain about the details, but the broad contours of the forthcoming changes seem pretty clear." Translation? Our predictions may be off, but they are directionally correct. ... (全文末段) All to say that it’s not that hard to paint a picture of how 25% of existing institutions—be it 550 nonprofit and public four-year institutions or 1,100 degree-granting institutions—close, merge or declare bankruptcy in the years ahead. Yes, the 200 most selective schools in the country are likely to be unaffected by these failures. Many institutions will find ways to innovate in the years ahead—although some of that innovation will likely be through clever mergers. Many will close individual programs (such as full-time MBA programs and law schools) and campus locations, while the institution remains open. Many colleges will likely even grow at the expense of those that fail. And yes, there will be some disruptors that grow significantly. And, we ultimately hope, many students will attend institutions better positioned to help them graduate and be successful. --

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