大联盟官网撰文分析村上的优缺点 https://reurl.cc/eV98a7 First things first: Murakami's power is still enormous. 首先要说的是：村上宗隆的力量依然惊人 Murakami was limited to just 56 games in 2025 due to an oblique injury, but he p rovided plenty of big swings after he came back. 2025年他因腹斜肌受伤仅出赛56场，但复出後火力全开 Once Murakami got back in the Swallows lineup, he went on a tear. He hit 22 home runs in his 56 games, which is an even higher home run pace than his 56 homers in 141 games in 2022. 村上回到养乐多燕子的打线後立刻展现强势火力 他在56场比赛中击出22支全垒打，这个速度甚至比他2022年在141场比赛轰出56支时还要更 快 Murakami finished in the top five in NPB in homers … despite barely playing a t hird of the games as the only hitters in front of him on the leaderboard. So he' s still got the pop. 尽管只出赛大约三分之一的赛程，村上全垒打数仍排名NPB前五名——在他前面的打者几乎 都是全年出赛的，可见他的长打威力依然惊人 In 2025, Murakami was more than twice as good as the average NPB hitter, with a 208 wRC+ that was reminiscent of his 2022 season. He once again excelled at crus hing fly balls and has tons of pull power, which is how plenty of MLB sluggers, like Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber, get their home runs. Murakami is a highly f eared hitter, whose prodigious power also helps him draw tons of walks. 2025年，村上的打击表现比NPB平均打者高出两倍以上，wRC+高达208，彷佛重现他2022年的 巅峰 他擅拥有强大的拉打火力——就像MLB的强打者Cal Raleigh和Kyle Schwarber那样，村上是 一位让投手畏惧的打者，他惊人的力量也让他获得大量保送 https://i.imgur.com/yy1t2K1.jpeg Murakami's best hitting stats -- via NPB Batter Profile app 村上宗隆打击数据 —— 资料来源：NPB Batter Profile And that respect from pitchers is deserved. Like some of those big lefty slugger s in the Majors, Murakami can reach the upper echelons of exit velocity. He defi nitely stacks up with the hardest hitters in MLB. 投手对他的敬畏绝对是应该的 就像大联盟中那些左打强打者一样，村上的击球初速能达到顶尖水准，他的力量足以和MLB 最强打者并列 Murakami's max exit velocity during the 2025 season was 116.5 mph, according to NPB tracking data newly provided in the league's NPB+ app. That's harder than mo st MLB sluggers ever hit the ball. 根据NPB新推出的「NPB+」追踪数据，村上在2025年的击球初速最高达到116.5英里（约187. 5公里） 这比多数MLB强打者的最高击球速度还要快 Max exit velo is an important metric for a hitter because it tells you, generall y, how high his ceiling is as a power hitter. The harder you can hit the ball, t he better your outcomes can be as a batter. 最快击球初速是一项重要的数据，因为它能显示打者作为强打者的潜力 你能把球打得越快，打击结果通常就越好 Hitting the ball extremely hard is a skill. Hitting the ball as Murakami can is a rare skill. 能够极强劲地击球是一种技巧； 而像村上那样击球的能力，是极为罕见的天赋 In 2025, only 23 MLB hitters hit even one ball 116 mph or harder. And only nine left-handed hitters did it, a list headlined by Oneil Cruz, James Wood, Schwarbe r, Elly De La Cruz and, of course, Shohei Ohtani. 在2025年整个MLB赛季中，只有23位打者击出过一次初速达116英里以上的球；其中仅有9位 是左打者——Oneil Cruz、James Wood、Schwarber、Elly De La Cruz），以及大谷翔平 Murakami's 116.5 mph max exit velo this season is also in line with the numbers we saw from him during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, when he played in front of Statcast tracking systems. 村上本季116.5英里的击球初速与他在2023年世界棒球经典赛中Statcast记录的数据相近， 展现出一致的强打水准 His hardest-hit ball tracked in the tournament was a 115.1 mph home run off Merr ill Kelly in Japan's win over the U.S. in the championship game. This year in ML B, only 19 players hit a home run 115 mph or harder. The nine of those who are l efties include Ohtani, Cruz, Schwarber, Wood, De La Cruz and Juan Soto. 在那届经典赛中，他击出的最强一球是对上美国队投手Merrill Kelly时打出的初速115.1英 里全垒打 2025年整季MLB只有19位球员打出初速115英里以上的全垒打，其中左打者包括大谷翔平、Cr uz、Schwarber、Wood、De La Cruz和Juan Soto Murakami looks like he could also have the high bat speeds to produce those hard -hit balls regularly. Also per the NPB+ app, his max bat speed in 2025 was 85.7 mph. For reference, Statcast's "fast swing" threshold for bat speed is 75-plus m ph, and the only MLB hitter who averages a bat speed of 80-plus mph is Giancarlo Stanton. 村上看起来也拥有能稳定击出高击球初速的挥棒速度 根据NPB+的数据，他2025年的最高挥棒速度为85.7英里，作为比较，Statcast定义的「fast swing」门槛是75英里以上，而全MLB平均挥棒速度超过80英里的，Giancarlo Stanton一人 Now, there's not much real insight to be gained just from Murakami's highest ind ividual swing speed, as plenty of hitters can generate those high bat speeds by taking an all-out hack once in a while. It's more just a teaser. We don't have a n average bat speed number for Murakami yet. But we can hope that given Murakami 's exit velocity and power production that results from his swings, he will have the bat speed to match. 当然仅从村上单次的最高挥棒速度还无法看出太多实质内容——很多打者偶尔全力挥击时也 能达到高数值 这更像是一个「预告」，目前我们还没有村上的平均挥棒速度数据，但从他击球初速与长打 火力来看，他应该具备与之匹配的挥棒速度 But the big question: Can Murakami get his K's down? 但最大的问题是：村上宗隆能否降低他的三振率？ If Murakami were jumping to the Major Leagues after his 2022 season, this wouldn 't be so urgent a question. While his strikeout numbers were still relatively hi gh for NPB -- a lower-strikeout league than MLB -- they were a lot lower than th ey are now. 如果村上是在2022年球季之後挑战大联盟，这个问题或许还不至於那麽紧迫，虽然2022他在 日本职棒的三振数在当时已属偏高——毕竟NPB的三振率比MLB低——但那时的数据仍比现在 好多了 Murakami's K's have ballooned in the three seasons since his record-setting year . That resulted in a dip in production at the plate in 2023 and '24 (Murakami wa s still very good as a hitter, just not historically good), and even stayed true in 2025, when his offensive numbers rebounded. 自从缔造破纪录赛季以来的三年间，村上的三振数大幅增加，这导致他在2023、2024年打击 成绩有所下滑（他仍是优秀的打者，只是不再具有历史性水准），即使到了2025年打击数据 回升，这个趋势依然存在 Those underlying numbers -- high swing-and-miss, high strikeouts, low contact -- are the No. 1 concern with Murakami as an MLB hitter. 这些潜在数据——挥空率高、三振多、低Contact——是评估村上成为MLB打者时的首要隐忧 Murakami's swing-and-miss and K numbers by season Per DeltaGraphs 2022: 31.7% whiff rate, 20.9% strikeout rate 2023: 34.3% whiff rate, 28.1% strikeout rate 2024: 37.3% whiff rate, 29.5% strikeout rate 2025: 36.7% whiff rate, 28.6% strikeout rate 村上宗隆各年度挥空率与三振率（资料来源：DeltaGraphs） 2022年：挥空率31.7%，三振率20.9% 2023年：挥空率34.3%，三振率28.1% 2024年：挥空率37.3%，三振率29.5% 2025年：挥空率36.7%，三振率28.6% Such a high swing-and-miss rate and strikeout rate in Japan is not good -- when NPB sluggers come to MLB, their contact numbers already tend to get worse. And M urakami's whiff rate and K% would have both been among the highest in MLB in 202 5. 在日本出现如此高的挥空率与三振率并不是好现象——因为日本打者登上MLB後，Contact数 据通常会进一步恶化，而以村上的数据来看，他的挥空率与三振率在2025年将足以名列MLB 最糟等级之一 As Yuri Karasawa noted in a thorough breakdown of Murakami over at JapanBall, Mu rakami's contact rate on pitches in the strike zone in 2025 was just 72.6%, down from 77.1% in 2022. In MLB, the average in-zone contact rate is 82.5%. 根据JapanBall网站的深入报告指出，村上在2025年对好球带内投球的Contact%仅为72.6%， 比2022年的77.1%下降不少，作为比较MLB平均的好球带内Contact%为82.5% In the Major Leagues, even elite high-power, high-strikeout sluggers like Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Schwarber will keep their in-zone contact rates above 75%. Onl y a few star sluggers like Rafael Devers and Nick Kurtz dipped below that thresh old in 2025. And again, the NPB-to-MLB move has a tendency to bring those contac t rates down. 在大联盟中，即便是强打型、高三振的顶级打者，如Aaron Judge、大谷翔平及Schwarber， 他们的好球带Contact%仍维持在75%以上 只有少数球星如Rafael Devers与Nick Kurtz在2025年跌破这个门槛，而且一如往常，从NPB 转战MLB的过程往往会让这些Contact%再度下降 Other Japanese sluggers like Seiya Suzuki have had much higher contact rates whe n they came to MLB. But Karasawa did note one interesting comparison who was mor e in line with Murakami: a young Ohtani, who had similar high hard-hit rates and contact metrics to Murakami when he joined the Angels in the 2017-18 offseason at age 22. 其他日本强打者如铃木诚也在登上MLB时的Contact%明显较高 不过也有一个有趣的比较对象——年轻时的大谷翔平，当他在2017-18年休赛季以22岁之龄 加盟天使队时，其强劲击球率与Contact数据与现在的村上相当接近 But there's risk for Murakami. High velocity, as well as secondary pitches -- es pecially breaking pitches from left-handed pitchers and offspeed pitches from ri ght-handed pitchers -- posed problems for Murakami. Again, that doesn't bode par ticularly well for batting in MLB, where high-velocity fastballs are more preval ent and wipeout breaking and offspeed pitches are heavily used. 不过对村上来说仍存在风险，高球速的速球与变化球——特别是左投的变化球、右投的offs peed——对他造成不少困扰，这对他在MLB的打击前景并非好兆头，因为在那里高球速的速 球与具破坏性的变化球比日本更常见、使用频率也更高 This season, Murakami swung at missed at nearly half of the offspeed pitches he swung at vs. righties, and nearly two thirds of the breaking pitches he swung at vs. lefties, per data from the handy NPB Batter Profile app. He'll have to work on making more contact against those secondary pitches in MLB. 根据NPB Batter Profil的数据显示，本季村上在面对右投手时，对offspeed的挥空率接近 一半；而对左投手的变化球，挥空率甚至高达三分之二 他必须在进入MLB後，提升对这类变化球的contact能力 https://i.imgur.com/Of8peoD.jpeg 挥空率 整体 vs右投 vs左投 直球 27.1% 26.6% 27.7% Breaking 48.1% 39.5% 65.1% Offspead 45.9% 45.2% 47.8% So Murakami's No. 1 goal when he arrives in MLB will have to be improving his co ntact ability while maintaining his elite power. 因此村上宗隆登上大联盟後的首要目标，将是提升contact能力，同时维持他那顶级的长打 火力 If he does that, he will be a star slugger in the Majors. His bat is just that d angerous. 如果他能做到这一点，他将成为MLB中的明星级强打者——他的打击威胁性，确实达到那个 层级 As others have noted, Murakami could be a Matt Olson type, or a Devers, or a Woo d or Riley Greene -- players for whom the strikeouts-for-home-run-power tradeoff is worth it in a big way. 正如一些评论指出，村上可能会发展成类似Matt Olson、Devers、Wood或Riley Greene这 类打者——他们都属於那种「以高三振换取强大火力」非常值得的类型 — 最近美媒合约预测 Jim Bowden 160M/6Y Tim Britton 158M/8Y BA 140M/7Y NBC 120M/5Y --

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